The dust hasn’t even settled on last night’s municipal elections, but focus is already shifting to the third and final election contest for 2025. This one – for the presidency – actually ends in the New Year, with voting in January and the winner taking office in March. But the ‘razzmatazz’ is already beginning, with certainly Gouveia e Melo leaning heavily on a social media campaign which delivers little clips on a regular basis.
In spite of this, however, according to Correio da Manhã, the candidacies of Gouveia e Melo (Independent), Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) and André Ventura (CHEGA) are ‘neck-and-neck’, or as the description in Portugal goes “at a technical tie”.
Losing steam (if indeed there ever has been any) is António José Seguro, the former PS leader whom the PS itself has not yet managed to endorse as its party candidate for the presidency. This factor may not have helped Mr Seguro whose chances have him in 4th place, but “well behind” the first three.
Otherwise, the remaining contenders are well out of the current front-running: IL’s former leader Cotrim de Figueiredo, Bloco de Esquerda’s former leader Catarina Martins, and PCP MP António Filipe are all on single figure percentages in terms of popularity.
From current forecasts what does seem fairly likely is that these will be elections that are not decided in the first ballot (scheduled for January 18) – and, again according to CM, “of the various hypotheses floated, Gouveia e Melo comes out winning them all”, even in a dual against Luís Marques Mendes (the seasoned politician who insists the president MUST have a political background).
The beauty of Gouveia e Melo’s apolitical stance is that he is receiving support from voters from both traditional main parties (PS and PSD), and is even preferred by 16% of CHEGA voters (says CM).
Perhaps the most ‘remarkable’ detail emerging from polls taken up till now is that only 45% of traditional PSD voters say they will be voting for Luís Marques Mendes, while only 29% of PS voters want to endore António José Seguro…
On the basis that voting will go to a second ballot, CM puts the likely date for this as February 8, 2026.
As for the main messages coming from the principal candidates, Gouveia e Melo’s is “it is time for a break from the past, something a great deal more presidential”; Marques Mendes’ is that the presidency has “no time for shots in the dark, experimentalism” (ie needs a seasoned politician, like himself); Ventura’s message is “I will represent freedom from cronyism and living on political subsidies”, while António José Seguro says “the country needs a mobilising project, a direction and a strategy”.
Commenting on the result of polls to date, CM’s deputy editorial director Eduardo Dâmaso says that PS Socialists “have to endorse Seguro this week”, or pull their preferred choice out of a hat pronto, as the dithering on this score is not helping either Mr Seguro, or the party.
Source material: Correio da Manhã
