Results for the October 12 municipal elections were very much ‘even stevens’ for ruling PSD and PS Socialists: each party can claim significant victories, and hold their heads way above the ‘threat of CHEGA’.
CHEGA conversely had a lacklustre night. For all leader André Ventura’s pre-election bluster, and focus on ‘taking the Algarve’ by storm, as the “beginning of the conquest of the country”, none of this happened. In fact, the results show very much the traditional feel of Portugal’s politics: a largely left-wing southern part of the country (PS are still the ultimate winners in the Algarve), with the rest being fairly evenly spread.
In numbers, the PSD polled 1,673,232 votes (winning 126 councils, with 34.48% of voters choosing the party: a much better result than the municipal elections last time round, in 2021, when PSD was in second place behind PS Socialists). But the ‘wipeout’ forecast for the Socialists was entirely wrong: José Luís Carneiro may not be the firebrand type of leader, but he is proving a safe pair of hands for a party that was decimated in May’s general elections. This time round, the PS polled a perfectly respectable 1,619,152 votes, taking 122 councils, with 33.37% of voters choosing the party.
The rest of the results show how little local voters consider minority parties for municipal power: CHEGA came in 3rd place, receiving 562,542 votes, winning three borough councils (including Albufeira, in the Algarve); Independents were the 4th winning force, polling 325,419 votes and winning 20 municipalities – including Aljezur in the Algarve – followed by CDU with 275,438 votes (12 councils), Iniciativa Liberal, with 76,233 votes – but no councils – CDS-PP with 70,863 votes and six councils, LIVRE with 52,181 votes and one council, and finally by Bloco de Esquerda and PAN, polling 46,168 votes and just 8,042 respectively, and neither winning any kind of council significance.
PSD are ‘delighted’ by the fact that they won the ‘big guns’ of local power:
- Lisbon – which returned mayor Carlos Moedas with a thundering 30,000-plus majority in spite of the hideous Glória funicular tragedy
- Porto, which really turned the tables on PS Socialists who had been banking on former health minister Manuel Pizarro, a man well-known in Porto, and instead saw Pedro Duarte dash their hopes
- Sintra – traditionally a PSD bastion
- Gaia – won thunderously by the PS in the 2021 local elections
PS meantime are just as delighted for reversing the awful general elections results of last May, and ‘coming back’ – the words of José Luís Carneiro – to win important municipalities.
Yes, there were the ‘blows’ for the PS of not succeeding in Lisbon, of not winning Porto, but in spite of these the two traditional major parties have held their own.
As Correio da Manhã explains: “The two main parties, in their own way, can sing victory, but the overall winner of the night was clearly the PSD, now with more jewels in its crown”.
The paper’s editorial director general Carlos Rodrigues concludes: “The news of the end of the two party system (given by André Ventura of CHEGA following the May election results) were clearly precipitous. For all those who thought the power of the PSD and the PS were things of the past, these results show the enormous resilience of both major parties which date back to the beginning of local administration (…) André Ventura has a long road ahead of him to consolidate personal charisma and develop it into solid, long lasting party structures”, he added, referring to the difficulties CHEGA had in finding candidates, and then finding suitable candidates.
As for the smaller parties, PAN is not consolidating on any of its past victories, and Bloco de Esquerda appears to be fading fast.
PCP/ CDU communists have admitted to being less than delighted with their results too: the party lost its signature municipalities of Grândola, Évora and Sines, and saw CHEGA beat it in Sesimbra. All in all, a “less good” night, in the words of PCP leader Paulo Raimundo.
